Who says it’s not about the size of the home but the location in Napa? Babyboomers agree, the smaller your house the less honey-does. It’s much more fun to spend time on the golf course, tennis courts or with friends downtwon Napa. Instead of bugged down with expense and time on elaborate homes. Let me show you how downsizing can be fun.
A recent report by CoreLogic revealed that U.S. home values appreciated by more than 37% over the last five years. Some are concerned that this is evidence we may be on the verge of another housing “boom & bust” like the one we experienced from 2006-2008. Recently, several housing experts weighed in on the subject to alleviate these fears.
Sean Becketti, Freddie Mac Chief Economist
“The evidence indicates there currently is no house price bubble in the U.S., despite the rapid increase of house prices over the last five years.”
Edward Golding, a Senior Fellow at the Urban Institute’s Housing Finance Policy Center
“There is not likely to be a national bubble in the way that we saw the first decade of the century.”
Christopher Thornberg, Partner at Beacon Economics
“There is no direct or indirect sign of any kind of bubble.”
Bill McBride, Calculated Risk
“I wouldn’t call house prices a bubble.”
David M. Blitzer, Chairman of the Index Committee at S&P Dow Jones Indices
“Housing is not repeating the bubble period of 2000-2006.”A recent article by Teo Nicolais, a real estate entrepreneur who teaches courses on real estate principles, markets, and finance at Harvard Extension School concluded that the next housing bubble may not occur until 2024. The article, How to Use Real Estate Trends to Predict the Next Housing Bubble, looks at previous peaks in real estate values going all the way back to 1818. Nicolais uses the research of several economists. The article details the four phases of a real estate cycle and what defines each phase. Nicolais concluded his article by saying:
“Those who study the financial crisis of 2008 will (we hope) always be weary of the next major crash. If George, Harrison, and Foldvary are right, however, that won’t happen until after the next peak around 2024. Between now and then, aside from the occasional slow down and inevitable market hiccups, the real estate industry is likely to enjoy a long period of expansion.”
Bottom LineHow does that effect the Napa Home prices?The reason for the price appreciation we are seeing is an imbalance between supply and demand for housing. This has created a natural increase in values, not a bubble in prices.
According to CoreLogic’s latest Home Price Index, prices appreciated by 6.9% year-over-year from December 2016 to December 2017 on a national level. This marks the fifth month in a row with at least a 6.9% increase. Dr. Frank Nothaft, Chief Economist for CoreLogic, gave insight into the reason behind the large appreciation,
“The number of homes for sale has remained very low. Job growth lowered the unemployment rate to 4.1 percent by year’s end, the lowest level in 17 years. Rising income and consumer confidence has increased the number of prospective homebuyers. The net result of rising demand and limited for-sale inventory is a continued appreciation in home prices.”This is great news for homeowners who have gained nearly $25,000 in equity (on average) in their homes over the last year! Those homeowners who had been on the fence as to whether or not to sell will be pleasantly surprised to find out that they now have an even larger profit to help cover a down payment on their dream homes. As we near the traditionally busy spring buyers season, there is still hope for buyers as mortgage rates remain low compared to recent decades. The report also predicted that home price appreciation will slow slightly, rising by 4.3% by this time next year.
Bottom LineChristine Hannah:"If you are looking to enter the housing market, as either a buyer or a seller, let’s get together to go over exactly what’s going on in our Napa neighborhood and discuss your options!"
The interest rate you pay on your home mortgage has a direct impact on your monthly payment. The higher the rate the greater the payment will be. That is why it is important to know where rates are headed when deciding to start your home search. Below is a chart created using Freddie Mac’s U.S. Economic & Housing Marketing Outlook. As you can see, interest rates are projected to increase steadily over the course of the next 12 months.
How Will This Impact Your Mortgage Payment?Depending on the amount of the loan that you secure, a half of a percent (.5%) increase in interest rate can increase your monthly mortgage payment significantly. According to CoreLogic’s latest Home Price Index, national home prices have appreciated 7.0% from this time last year and are predicted to be 4.2% higher next year. If both the predictions of home price and interest rate increases become reality, families would wind up paying considerably more for their next home.
Bottom LineEven a small increase in interest rate can impact your family’s wealth. Let’s get together to evaluate your ability to purchase your dream home. Spring is a good time to buy as seller's are very motivated to move on. Let me guide you!
Just like with any product or service, the law of supply and demand impacts home prices. Any time that there is less supply than the market demands, prices increase. In many areas of the country, the supply of homes for sale in the starter and trade-up home markets is so low that bidding wars have ensued, and the busy spring-buying season is just around the corner. CoreLogic recently conducted an analysis on national home prices at the time of sale for their January 2018 MarketPulse Report and found that a third of homes sold for at least list price.
“The share selling above list price was almost three times the trough in January 2008 and represented more than one-fifth of total sales.”Many markets in the western part of the country and around major cities are experiencing higher shares of homes selling above list price.
“San Francisco had the largest share of homes—76 percent—that sold for at least the list price, and Seattle and Los Angeles followed with 63 and 51 percent, respectively. Miami had the lowest share—16 percent—of homes selling at or above the list price.”Increased demand during the spring and summer months, the traditionally busier seasons for real estate, will no doubt influence how many homes continue to sell over list price. This should not be seen by sellers as permission to overprice their homes, though. Buyers are becoming more and more educated, especially those who have been searching for their dream homes for a while now while waiting for new inventory to come to market. Realtor.com gives this advice:
“Aim to price your property at or just slightly below the going rate. Today’s buyers are highly informed, so if they sense they’re getting a deal, they’re likely to bid up a property that’s slightly underpriced, especially in areas with low inventory.”
Bottom LineIn Napa without a large wave of new listings coming to market, buyers will continue competing with each other for the homes that are available. If you are thinking of selling your home, now may be the time to do so before more competition comes this spring. Let’s get together to determine the demand for your house in our Napa Valley. Call Christine Hannah, Broker, Realtor at 707-257-6000 to find what is selling or who is buying the Napa Valley.
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